Year: 2000

The “One in a Thousand” Fallacy

You’ve heard the argument — typically from some vocal zealot short on any other merit to support his position.

We should do this thing even if it only benefits one person in a thousand.

Thus, highway speeds should be lowered to 35 MPH, if justified no more than by saving just one more life. Church doors should never be locked, if only to save the soul of just one midnight sinner otherwise lost. No idea should go unheard, in excruciating detail! during a brainstorming session, if only to allow that it may be that one in a thousand which turns out to be a moneymaker.

The problem is that none of these arguments takes consequence into account. For every choice, there is an alternative: A choice not made, no longer available.

Refusal to consider consequence does not negate the fact that lowering the speed limit will impact all sorts of lives, in all sorts of ways. It may save one life in a thousand. It may also impede commerce to such a degree that a greater multiple of other lives are lost because food, medical supplies, and disaster relief cannot be delivered timely.

An empty church that is left unlocked is at high risk for vandalism and looting, consequently leaving it unusable for an entire congregation. Hire security? That may come at the expense of missions programs. Or existing staff could simply be assigned “watch” duties — if you’re open to burning their candles at both ends.

If you’ve ever been in a free-for-all “team” meeting sans responsible structuring, I don’t need to tell you how quickly the intellectual and emotional contributions of your real horses will be snuffed by unbridled flights of fancy.

Of course there are some ideas that are bad even before they’ve crossed the speaker’s lips.

Time has value. Things exist as they do for reasons. All change comes at some cost. It’s not unkind, closed-minded, or greedy to acknowledge this.

On the other hand, the “if only for one in a thousand” conversation-stopper seems to me very much all of these things.

If a solution is truly the best, right way to go, then show all of us the respect of doing the homework, organizing a case for it, and making a logically persuasive argument based on real people, in a real world.

Show us real understanding of the sacrifices and consequences that are to be imposed on others. Be accountable, in the fullest sense of cost-to-benefit ratios.

Truly good ideas and needs met must be rise by their own merits, sans hyperbole.

Quoting Kurt Vonnegut Jr, on feeling in control

The Martian troops, moreover, had no control over where there ships were to land. Their ships were controlled by fully automatic pilot-navigators, and these electronic devices were set by technicians on Mars so as to make the ships land at particular points on Earth, regardless of who awful the military situation might be down there.

The only controls available to those on board were two push-buttons on the center post of the cabin — one labeled on and one labeled off. The on button simply started the flight from Mars. The off button was connected to nothing. It was installed at the insistence of Martian mental-health experts, who said that human beings were always happier with machinery they thought they could turn off.

— The Sirens of Titan

Quoting Margaret Thatcher, on personal attacks

I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.

Quoting Nora Ephron, on certain among the insane

Insane people are always sure that they are fine. It is only the sane people who are willing to admit that they are crazy.

Quoting Walter Lippmann, on self-awareness

Many a time I have wanted to stop talking and find out what I really believed.

Proverbs 3:5, on trust

Trust in the Lord with all your heart; do not depend on your own understanding.

— New Living Translation

We are getting into semantics again. If we use words, there is a grave danger they will be misinterpreted.

Quoting “Psycho,” on trust

I think I must have one of those faces you can’t help believing.

Norman Bates (Anthony Perkins).

— Alfred Hitchcock, director

Quoting Sparky Anderson, on power versus speed

If you have to choose between power and speed — and it often turns out you have to make that choice — you’ve got to go for speed.

Quoting “Star Trek,” on presentation

Admiral James T Kirk (William Shatner):

You’re not exactly catching us at our best.

Captain Spock (Leonard Nimoy):

That much is certain

— Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home, Leonard Nimoy