The "One in a Thousand" Fallacy 
by Dell Deaton
 

 

You've heard the argument — typically from some vocal zealot short on any other merit to support his position.

Photo: Belt and suspenders - to be certain"We should do this thing even if it only benefits one person in a thousand."

Thus, highway speeds should be lowered to 35 MPH, if only to be justified by saving one more life. Church doors should never be locked, if only to save the soul of one midnight sinner otherwise lost. No idea should go unheard in a brainstorming session, if only to allow that it may be that one in a thousand which turns out to be a moneymaker.

The problem is that none of these arguments takes consequence into account. For every choice, there is a sacrifice: A choice not made, no longer available.

Refusal to consider consequence does not negate the fact that lowering the speed limit will impact all sorts of lives, in all sorts of ways. It may save one life in a thousand. It may also impede commerce to such a degree that other lives are lost because food, medical supplies, and disaster relief cannot be delivered timely.

An empty church that is left unlocked is at high risk for vandalism and looting, consequently leaving it unusable for an entire congregation. Hire security? That may come at the expense of missions programs. Or existing staff could simply be assigned "watch" duties — if you're open to burning their candles at both ends.

If you've ever been in a free-for-all meeting sans intelligent governance, I don't need to tell you how quickly the intellectual and emotional contributions of your real horses will be snuffed by unbridled flights of fancy.

Of course there are some ideas that are bad even before they've crossed the speaker's lips.

Time has value. Things exist as they do for reasons. All change comes at some cost. It's not unkind, closed-minded, or greedy to acknowledge this. On the other hand, the "if only for one in a thousand" conversation-stopper seems to me very much all of these things.

If a solution is truly the best, right way to go, then show all of us the respect of doing the homework, organizing a case for it, and making an argument based on real people, in a real world.

Show us real understanding of the sacrifices and consequences that are to be imposed on others.

Truly good ideas and needs which must be met rise by their own merits, sans hyperbole.

 

 
 

 
 

Complete List of pages related to this topic

 
 

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Ephesians 5:22-3301/12/2006"Obedience" in marriage
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Obedience Quotes10/01/2006G. Gordon Liddy, "Will" (1980)
Omega corrects another Bond watch ad error11/11/2006
Paper Dolls01/12/2006Lessons in denying reality
Precision Accuracy01/05/2006Performance standards compared
Reconsiliation Quotes10/01/2006
Suitability01/12/2006"The Marketing Imagination," Theodore Levitt
The "One in a Thousand" Fallacy01/03/2006
Trust Quotes10/01/2006

 
 
 
 
   
Copyright © 2008-2005 Dell Deaton. All Rights Reserved. Ann Arbor, Michigan (USA). Nothing on this site may be used in whole or in part without express written permission from its owner, in advance. Visitors to this site assume all risk for any and all use thereof; no warranty of any kind is provided, expressed or implied.
 

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